Forecasts are everywhere—and most of them age badly.
Hype prefers spectacle. Useful foresight prefers patterns.
Instead of asking what will go viral, ask what problems keep returning.
Follow incentives, constraints, and unmet needs.
Ignore claims that depend on perfect conditions or endless growth.
Pay attention to boring infrastructure: energy, education, logistics, trust, time.
The future is rarely a clean break from the present.
It is the present under different pressures.
Good readers of the future stay skeptical without becoming cynical.
They hold strong curiosity and weak assumptions—at the same time.
